WEATHER BLOG

HERE YOU WILL FIND COMMENTARY ON ANY NEWSWORTHY WEATHER EVENTS WORLDWIDE FROM AUGUST 2017-LATEST ENTRY AT THE TOP
WINTER 2017-18 SEASONAL WEATHER PREDICTION 
​COMPILED 15TH NOVEMBER 2017
    It's that time of year again when I look at the prospects of the weather over the coming three months, in this instance the months in question are December, January and February. This one always attracts the most interest within my followers as it is the time of year where weather can have much greater impacts on the day to day living with health and mobility factors foremost in peoples minds. So here goes.
​So far Autumn 2017 has been very quiet for the most part and while of course we have seen some rain over the period amounts have not been exceptional and river courses etc are nothing out of the ordinary and that has an important bearing on the conditions that might be aggrevated by any exceptional winter rainfalls.
​In general the weather patterns this Winter look to me like being governed by higher than average pressure over Southern and Eastern Europe and lower pressure up to the NW of us. This means that the Winter looks like being milder than average with some exceptionally mild days possible at times as winds blow from a direct Southerly point over our part of the UK. It also looks like being a quite mild Winter across much of NW Europe as well with the Alps looking like seeing snowfall below average on the lower slopes. As far as snow goes for us it looks like we will see very little disruptive snow again this year and while some short cold or very cold incursions from the North might follow rain bands as they cross frost and/or snow will be limited to short periods from these before milder air returns from off the Atlantic. I also think that High pressure over Scandinavia this season won't be easy to achieve due to unsupportive synoptic patterns around us and Europe and it is this setup which can give us our coldest, longest lasting and harshest Winter conditions.
I think rainfall could be below average through the three months when taken as a 3 month period with lengthy spells of weather not dissimilar to the mild and benign conditions we are experiencing currently but there probably will be some short very wet periods as the High pressure to the South weakens it's influence at times and its also at those points when the cold incursions from the North are most likely.
Sunshine amounts I think will be below average with cloud from off the Atlantic covering skylines for a lot of the time.
​So for snow and frost lovers I feel there will be disappointment in the above but remember my findings are unscientific and are compiled from past weather records and pattern matching techniques rather than staring at crystal balls for the longer term future.
​I don't like bringing climate change into a prediction such as this but it is a fact that with the advent of the warming Earth Winter synoptics for Europe in general  seem to have supported the pattern I predict above for the coming three months with increased frequency over the last 10-20 years and I see no reason to think that this Winter will be any different. There has been a recent El Nina event over in the Pacific which can affect weather patterns over here in Europe towards a tendency to promote colder than average conditions but it has not happened and with that in subsidence over the coming weeks and months it looks like another Atlantic based Winter albeit unlikely to be of the wet and wild side but of the mild and quiet type is on the cards so prepare to see the daffodils and snowdrops in January again this year.
So In quick summary the Winter to come in my eyes looks likely to be:
Drier than average
Milder than average.
Duller than average.
Incidences of frost and snow lower than average.

And now for the disclaimer: I use totally different techniques for predicting long term predictions than I do for my forecasts on the Kilmersdon Weather Facebook page which are short range and are scientific so there is a high chance of of the above being wrong. I was wrong last year following being right the previous 4 out of 5 winters. Let's see how this one goes.
MARTIN GIBBS 
Severe Heatwaves in Europe and North America​​​
05.08.2017 18:19
Summer may have halted in the UK for the time being, but it is currently biting hard across southern Europe, with the region suffering its worst heatwave since 2003. Record-breaking heat has also been recorded in the US Pacific Northwest recently. 
Severe heatwave in Southern Europe
Throughout this week, much of Southern Europe has been affected by some serious heat. Spain, Southern France, Italy, the Balkans and parts of Central Europe have seen record-breaking temperatures, as the most extreme heatwave in over a decade set-in. With a ridge of high pressure sitting over the region for a week, sunny skies by day and light winds have helped temperatures to build day-on-day.  August 4th, saw a high of 42.8C (109F) recorded in Rome, while the highest temperature of the heatwave so far, of  44C, (111F), was recorded in Sardinia. Although these parts of Europe are used to high temperatures in the summer, maximum temperatures are still 10-15C above the average for this time of year. Many national weather services placed parts of their countries on the most extreme high temperature warnings, while in Albania, the country’s armed forces had to be called in to help firefighters battled dozens of forest fires.
The extreme heat worsens the situation in Italy, which is suffering from the most severe drought in living memory. In Rome, many of the city’s fountains have been turned off, with drastic water rationing only narrowly avoided last week. And there has been little respite during the nights: Loreto on the northern Adriatic coast recorded a minimum of 31.0C (88F) on the night of the 3rd August. The severe daytime heat has also corresponded with exceptionally high humidity – with several locations in Italy recording maximum dewpoints of over 30C, exacerbating the heat stress felt by humans and animals. 
The heatwave is expected to peak through Saturday and Sunday, with temperatures in the mid-40s Celsius possible across southern Italy and the Balkans. A brief cool down will occur here later on Sunday, as a weak cold front moves in from the west, although the heat is expected to build once more towards the middle of next week. 
The heatwave has helped to fuel a strong meridional temperature gradient across Europe, which in turn has strengthened the jet stream recently. The jet has been taking a southerly track across the southern half of the UK and northern Europe, resulting in cool and showery conditions with below-average temperatures here.
Heat in the US Pacific Northwest
This part of the USA is typically not used to extreme heat, - in fact, Seattle has a similar oceanic climate to London. However, earlier in the week, Seattle was forecast to break the 100F (38C) barrier on the 3rd August, for only the third time in 123 years, while Portland, Oregon was expected to get to 107F (42C). In the end, Seattle reached 94F (34C), which is a serious health issue for a city where less than a third of residents have air conditioning. The 105F (41C) recorded in Portland broke the 65-year-old day record. The heat also resulted in numerous wildfires breaking out in the region, leaving to air pollution advisories being issued, as the smoke plumes could be seen from space! 
By: Richard Martin-Barton of Meteogroup.