MODEL ANALYSIS

Some years ago I thought of an idea to give everyone on my website the chance to better understand synoptic charts by me giving a running commentary twice a day on the model outputs and their timed charts as they were issued and the type of weather that each chart would likely give the UK as a whole. This was well received by locallers so I decided to put it on to a national platform using two notably acclaimed weather forums. Here too it was generally well received and I maintained its prescence their for several years. Then after a couple of years the pressures of time and personal family issues led to me being unable to focus on the ritual of compiling the report each day plus some unsavoury comments from some individuals on the forums towards me led to my cessation of the report. Having had a break now for six months or so I have had an increasing number of requests to bring back the service from local folk. So I have decided to do just that but this time keeping it exclusive to my website and publishing it just once a day not twice, Those folks used to seeing my reports on the forums will now have to read my reports here. The format is much as before with charts showing 3,5,10 and (where applicable) 15 days from the present with an end summary piecing together all the models outputs towards a common theme and the most likely track and weather type I think the models point towards. The latest edition can be seen below. 

Current Situation Today and Latest GFS Run

LATEST UKMO MODEL RUN

​LATEST ECM MODEL RUN



​ECM 10 DAY MEAN CHART

VERIFICATION STATS OF 3 BEST MODELS

3 DAYS ECM 97.7% UKMO 96.9% GFS 96.4%
5 DAYS ECM 89.9% UKMO 88.2% GFS 86.2%
8 DAYS ECM 61.6% GFS 55.3%
10 DAYS ECM 40.0% GFS 36.6%

​MY REVIEW OF TODAYS MODEL RUNS

The coming 10 days will see a complete change in weather type across the UK as we pick up tropical maritime conditions on the northern flank of a High pressure area lying just to the South of the UK through next week. With the Jet Stream moving to a position North of the UK temperatures will reflect that with double figure values widely in the coming 7 days or so. The downside is of course tropical maritime air carries a lot of moisture and as a result cloud will often be extensive with sunshine at a premium. Over the North of the UK some rain is likely at times as weather fronts pass East over or to the North and conversely any clearances in cloud over the South will lead to slow clearing fog but at the moment that doesn't look likely to be an extensive problem.
So what of Christmas and the run up to the New Year. It currently looks likely that Low pressure will play a much more dominant role over the UK weather as the Jet Stream returns to the South of the UK with gales and heavy rain a frequent occurrence for all. Temperatures look like falling away again at times with wintry showers piling into the West of the UK especially and not just across Northern areas.
So we will be looking once more to the North and NW for our next excursion into more wintry weather between Christmas and the New Year .


Issued at 21:30 on Saturday December 16th 2017 

MARTIN GIBBS